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Sino-US Trade War: stock risk becomes bigger, high-tech internet industry is affected

Sino-US Trade War: stock risk becomes bigger, high-tech internet industry is affected

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
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  • Time of issue:2018-09-19
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(Summary description)Before signing the White House, Trump told the media that Chinese goods involving taxes could reach $60 billion trillion. This is the United States in the early March after the lifting of steel and al

Sino-US Trade War: stock risk becomes bigger, high-tech internet industry is affected

(Summary description)Before signing the White House, Trump told the media that Chinese goods involving taxes could reach $60 billion trillion. This is the United States in the early March after the lifting of steel and al

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-09-19
  • Views:0
Information

Before signing the White House, Trump told the media that Chinese goods involving taxes could reach $60 billion trillion. This is the United States in the early March after the lifting of steel and aluminum tariffs, another large-scale unilateral trade protection behavior, Sino-US trade friction heated sharply.

In this respect, the agency issued the following views. In response to the main areas of the Sino-US trade war, CICC today released the latest research report, 1) from the signing of the memorandum to the brunt of the Chinese plan to levy 25% additional tariffs on the industry, especially in the aerospace, information and communication technology, machinery, 2) trade accounted for the industry is also affected. From the current Sino-US trade structure, China's exports to the United States are mainly machinery and equipment (according to the classification is mainly household appliances, electronics and other categories, accounting for 48% of total exports) and miscellaneous products (12%), Textiles (10%), Metal Products (7%) and so on. U.S. exports to China are mainly focused on machinery and equipment (30%, mainly capital goods), transport equipment (20%), Chemical products (10%), plastics and rubber Products (5%), etc. 3) on the positive side, the future of China may be more open to some areas in response to the Sino-US trade war, including cars,  Medical, financial, pension, media products.

In addition, the impact on the capital market, CICC said that the positive response to the short-term possible shocks, medium and long-term need not be too pessimistic, if there is a continuous and large amplitude of excessive adjustment instead of providing investors with a better opportunity to enter. Ping ' an securities interpretation of the impact of trade war on a-share: negative These 7 large plate Ping An securities released the latest research report said, by comparing trade war-affected a-share plate (the second Class) market value ratio can be found chemical (including plastic rubber), mechanical, non-ferrous and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel

Including footwear and leather products, such as the market capitalization ratio of more than 1%, furniture plate market capitalization ratio of 0.5%, the total market value of each industry accounted for 21.1%. If the market value of the plate to measure the impact of the whole markets, then the United States in the chemical (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous metal and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel and textile and apparel (including footwear and leather products) in the field of trade war in addition to the relevant sectors to bring bad outside,

will also have a significant impact on China's entire stock market.

Shenwan Hongyuan: How will the Sino-US trade frictions unfold? Shenwan Hongyuan published the latest research, said the United States and Japan's trade friction experience has provided us with a great lesson, but after the founding of the WTO in 1995, "301 Survey" Such unilateral trade tools have gradually withdrawn from the historical stage.

Under the framework of economic and trade globalization and changeable trade rules, the cooperation and interaction of global industrial chain have been deepened, the United States has used the old trade protection means, the operation process and the impact chain will be different in Japan experience. In addition, the impact of China-US trade frictions on financial markets, Shen Shenwan said, can be analogous to the 2002-2003 Bush launched a trade war situation. On the US side, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply after the start of the trade war and began to rise gradually after 2003, when bond markets entered a bull market, yields were down in the 2003-year period, rebounded in the second half of 2003, and the dollar index shocks fell. China, the Shanghai Composite Index overall low volatility downward, 10-year Treasury bond yield shocks upward, the dollar against the renminbi fixed in the vicinity of 8.28.

Overall, the impact of the trade war on market risk appetite will be the main reason for short-term volatility in financial markets, and if the trade war escalates, the world may again enter the Risk-off model similar to the beginning of February this year. Overall, China has the role of the mainstay of economic globalization, in the face of challenges, through cooperation to deal with all challenges, to guide the economic globalization trend is the right choice. Economic globalization is the objective requirement of the development of social productive forces and the inevitable result of scientific and technological progress, although the current globalization is challenged by trade frictions, but it will not be suspended.

If China chooses the right way to respond positively, it will be conducive to the deepening of reform, the external global economic recovery and the systemic stability of financial markets can be continued. Guo Jin strategy: A-share short-term pressure to good national Gold securities issued the report said, "Sino-US Trade war" degree will directly affect the global economic growth expectations, global commodity price damage.

Historical lessons show that high tariffs not only failed to increase domestic employment opportunities for American workers, but greatly deepened the "Great Depression" process. China will actively take measures to meet the challenges, has announced plans to levy tariffs on imports from the U.S., involving US $3 billion in U.S. exports to Warsaw Pact, the current tax products are still mostly in the "agricultural products", do not rule out the Chinese follow-up may be imposed on the U.S. tariff levy further countermeasures, including "cars, aircraft, agricultural products,  Import Photo paper "The field will be the focus, of course, the restriction on imports of agricultural products, China will also consider its own inflation;"

Guo Jin Securities that the trade war has no winner, the global risk aversion rise, A shares short-term pressure, medium and long-term trend is still good.

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