U. S.-China trade war: stock risk becomes bigger, high-tech Internet industry affected

Trump told the media before the White House signing that the scale of Chinese goods involved in the tax could reach $60 billion. This is another large-scale unilateral trade protection act after the United States raised steel and aluminum tariffs in early March, and the Sino-US trade friction has risen sharply. In this regard, the agency issued the following views.

Regarding which areas will be mainly affected by the Sino-US trade war, CICC released the latest research report today, stating that 1) From the signing of the memorandum, the first to bear the brunt is for industries where China plans to impose 25% additional tariffs, especially aerospace, Information and communication technology, and machinery; 2) Industries with a relatively high proportion of trade will also be affected. Judging from the current Sino-US trade industry structure, China's exports to the United States are mainly machinery, equipment and instruments (according to classification, mainly household appliances, electronics and other categories, accounting for 48% of the total exports), miscellaneous products (12%), textiles (10%), metal products (7%), etc. The products exported by the United States to China are mainly concentrated in machinery and equipment (30%, mainly capital goods), transportation equipment (20%), chemical products (10%), plastic and rubber products (5%), etc.; 3) From a positive perspective, China may increase its opening up to some fields in response to the Sino-US trade war in the future, including automotive, medical, financial, pension, media products. In addition, with regard to the impact on the capital market, CICC said that it is not necessary to be too pessimistic in the medium and long term to actively respond to possible short-term shocks. If there is a continuous and large-scale excessive adjustment, it will provide investors with a better opportunity to enter.

Ping An Securities interprets the impact of the trade war on A- shares: the 7 major sectors of the negative Ping An Securities released the latest research report said, by comparing the market capitalization of the-share sector (Shenwan Class II), which is more affected by the trade war, it can be found that chemicals (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel and textiles and clothing (including footwear and leather products) all account for more than 1% of the market capitalization, the furniture sector accounts for 0.5, and the total market capitalization of various industries accounts for 21.1.

If the market value is used to measure the impact coefficient of the sector on the entire market, the United States is in the chemical industry (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel, and textiles and clothing (including footwear and leather products). In addition to bringing negative effects to related sectors, a trade war will also have a significant impact on China's entire stock market.

Shen Wanhongyuan: How will the current round of Sino-US trade friction unfold? What are the implications?

Shen Wanhongyuan released the latest research report, saying that the trade friction experience of the United States and Japan has provided us with a great lesson, but after the establishment of the WTO in 1995, unilateralist trade tools such as "301 investigation" have gradually withdrawn from the historical stage. Under the framework of economic and trade globalization and changeable trade rules, the cooperation and interaction of the global industrial chain has been infinitely deepened, the United States uses the old era trade protection means, the operation process and the chain of influence will be different from the Japanese experience.

In addition, in terms of the impact of the current round of Sino-US trade frictions on the financial market, Shen Wanhongyuan said that it can be compared to the situation during the trade war launched by George W. Bush in 2002-2003. In the United States, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply after the start of the trade war, and gradually began to rise after 2003; the bond market entered a bull market, and Treasury bond yields were in a downward trend before mid -2003, and rebounded in the second half of 2003; The dollar index fell back in shock. On the Chinese side, the Shanghai Composite Index was generally low and volatile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was volatile and the dollar was fixed at around 8.28 against the yuan. Overall, the impact of the trade war on market risk appetite will be the main reason for short-term volatility in financial markets, and if the trade war escalates, the world could once again enter a risk-off pattern similar to that of early February this year.

On the whole, China shoulders the role of the mainstay of economic globalization. In the face of challenges, it is the right choice to meet all challenges through cooperation and guide the trend of economic globalization. Economic globalization is the objective requirement of the development of social productive forces and the inevitable result of scientific and technological progress. Although the current globalization is challenged by trade frictions, it will not be suspended because of this. If China chooses the appropriate way to actively respond, it will benefit the deepening of reforms internally, and the external global economic recovery and the systemic stability of the financial market can also continue.

IFC Strategy: A- shares under short-term pressure in the medium and long term to good IFC Securities issued a research report saying that the extent of the "Sino-US trade war" will directly affect global economic growth expectations, and global commodity prices will be damaged. The lessons of history show that high tariffs not only failed to increase domestic employment opportunities for American workers, but also greatly deepened the "Great Depression" process.

China will actively take measures to meet the challenges. It has announced that it plans to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States, involving about US $3 billion billion in exports from the United States to China. At present, most of the above-mentioned taxable products are still on "agricultural products". It is not ruled out that China may take further countermeasures against the tariff collection of the United States. Among them, "automobiles, airplanes, agricultural products, and imported photographic paper" will be the focus, of course, with regard to restrictions on imports of agricultural products, China will also consider its own inflation; Guojin Securities believes that there is no winner in the trade war, global risk aversion is rising, A- shares are under short-term pressure, and the medium-and long-term trend is still good.

Guojin Securities said that in addition to the damage to the bulk cycle, China's industries affected by the US hegemonic "anti-dumping" policy in the short term are mainly aimed at intelligent technology and communication products, as well as other areas involving intellectual property disputes. The commodities subject to tariffs will include "aviation, railways, new energy and high-tech information products. Tianfeng Securities interprets the impact of trade war on A- shares: not conducive to cyclical stocks.

The current U. S.-China trade war is the biggest uncertainty, and we judge its impact on A- shares in two ways:

First, exports currently account for about 9.1 percent of last year's GDP growth, and a larger increase than before, is the key to the resilience of the economy in the past year, if the future Sino-US trade war is poor expectations, then investors are bound to lower China's economic growth expectations, not conducive to cyclical stocks. The opportunity for cyclical stocks may lie in poor gaming expectations.

Second, the United States to raise trade barriers, the probability will make domestic prices rise, thus pushing up the level of inflation, if the United States at this time the real economic growth remains stable, then nominal economic growth will significantly improve, and eventually promote the U.S. bond yields to a higher level. The result of this situation will further increase the volatility of global equity assets this year, resulting in reduced or even outflow of funds into the stock market, including A- shares. According to the central bank, the size of foreign holdings of A- shares has increased significantly over the past year, 550 billion the overall level has nearly doubled, and these foreign inflows into consumer white horses have led to the formation of a Davis double-click trend opportunity for this type of stock last year. Looking ahead, once foreign investors show signs of loosening, white horse stocks under crowded trading may continue to be hit by severe shocks in global risk assets.

China Merchants Macro: The potential impact of the trade war on the number of Fed rate hikes during the year.

According to an article by China Merchants Macro, judging from the news from the United States, Trump's trade protection policy may no longer be a simple "show", and it is particularly necessary to pay attention to the "301 investigation" on intellectual property protection, which is highly related to China's exports to the United States. If the final survey results are not conducive to China, it may also play a role in raising the inflation of the United States itself, this may also be one of the variables in the number of Fed rate hikes during the year.

Guoxin Securities: peripheral disturbances increase waiting to underestimate opportunities

The latest view of Guoxin Securities is that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as scheduled and the central bank will follow up with an increase of 5 basis points (BP) in the open market operating rate, making it difficult for market liquidity to form easing expectations. Overnight U.S. stocks may cause global market volatility to rise again as Trump's trade policy adjusts sharply. If the market adjusts rapidly, structural opportunities will increase. Short-term market to the stock of funds game-based, the market in the mining of oversold stocks at the same time, but also to examine the stock price overdraft performance of the target, differentiation or will continue. Configuration should be oversold undervalued, stable performance to good companies, control good positions, waiting for market changes.